Random Thoughts on Things That Change.
The passing of John Paul II is noteworthy for a lot of reasons, but not least because he's a rather long-lived pope by most standards. He was also pretty much well liked, despite some unpopular beliefs.
His support for Opus Dei seems to be getting a reasonable amount of attention, although it's hardly a defining element of his papacy, and I wonder how much of that general public hand wringing is more a product of Dan Brown than John Paul II. Still, rich, powerful and secretive sects are always good press, especially when they manage to get one of their members elevated to ministerial status (the current UK minister for education is almost certainly an OD member, even though she refuses to confirm it outright.)
Speaking of the UK, the Queen is about to dissolve parliament, in advance of the next general election. Which should really be called the next Blair election, since it would pretty much take an act of God to prevent his victory. Not that Tony Blair is the best thing to hit Number 10 since Churchill, but the opposition just willfully picks guys that are solid gold shoe-in second placers.
Tony is unpopular because he led his country into a war they didn't want, and has been accused of both eating away at civil liberties and expanding the size of government until it dwarfs even some fevered Owellian nightmare. But, of course, the Labour parry won't win this election; they'll just wait for the other guys to lose it. Kind of reminds me of another recent election, but there you go.
Anyways, back to Pontiff.
So, a new Pope will be arriving on the scene within the next two weeks or so, if I have my dates correct. I've heard it suggested that this one would be a 'caretaker' Pope, to keep things ticking over for a while, while they pick the next big hitter. Personally, I doubt that. This is, after all, the throne of St. Peter we're taking about, not the boardroom at Disney. Big changes? Probably not. On the fundamental issues, the Catholic Church isn't about to do any 180s. Ordaining Women? Doubtful in the short term, but I'd give it a slim chance. Marriage for Priests? A slimmer chance, but not utterly out the question. Abortion? No change, I would suspect. Contraception? Hmm. Maybe. Maybe. Nothing in the short term though, but maybe, just maybe a change. Any such changes, though, would have to come from a Pope that had already established his bona fides, and therefore will have to be in place for some years before they start turning the helm.
I read one interesting statistic, that John Paul II was Pope to around 1/3 of all Catholics that have ever lived. The explosive growth of Catholicism has taken place in predominantly poorer nations, and the Catholics who live there are typically more conservative than their European or North American counterparts. So the bulk of the Catholic Church itself is shifting inexorably southwards and, some might say, toward the right.
Also hanging over the heads of any new Pope will be the vision of the disarray of the Episcopalian Church, something that must make the college of Cardinals break out in a cold sweat.
So in the end, the new Pope will be constrained to continue on the same course for quite some time, I would imagine. The new Pope not only has big shoes to fill, but it'll take a strong man indeed to have those shoes walk on any path not already trod by John Paul.